Is the Next 500% Rally Starting?

The XRP breakout traders have been waiting on for months finally showed up on August 21, with the token trading at $1.31 right now, up 18% in the past 24 hours and more than 31% for the week, according to CoinGecko. It’s a fast, fairly sudden move, and it’s already stirring up the XRP price prediction conversation again, with people asking whether this is the start of a real XRP rally or just another quick spike. A lot of traders are wondering if there’s an XRP breakout soon for real this time, or if it fades out again like a few of the earlier attempts did.

Also Read: XRP Price Target: Pundit Predicts $5 as the Next 12 Months Could Be Life-Changing

XRP Breakout Signals Point To A Potential Major Rally Ahead

This move lines up with an unusual technical setup that analyst Steph Is Crypto flagged on the two week chart. He found that XRP had spent 28 days below the Gaussian channel indicator, which matches the exact same stretch from 2020, right before the token turned sharply higher. XRP tested that same downward trend line again this cycle, the one traders first drew back in 2020, and the price has now pushed above it for the first time since 2024, which is honestly a pretty rare thing to see.

Monica Long, President of Ripple, said:

“We’ve seen the veritable light switch flip.”

XRP Price Tests Key Historical Trend Line

A gold denominated version of that same chart tells a similar story. The 2020 trend line shows up there too, and every earlier bull run traces right back to that same level. People are watching this part of the setup pretty closely, since each earlier touch of the line ended up marking a bottom rather than a breakdown, at least so far. Steph did caution that XRP could still drop another 10 to 20 percent before anyone can truly confirm a bottom, so the XRP forecast here isn’t a straight line up, and an XRP breakout this soon isn’t a sure thing yet.

Institutional Demand And On-Chain Activity Rise

Fresh capital flows also played a part behind this XRP breakout, and that part matters too. Quarterly filings showed bigger institutional allocations into spot XRP exchange traded funds, and net inflows into those products kept coming in even while the rest of crypto stayed cautious. On the XRP Ledger, transaction volume and active addresses both climbed, and Ripple kept issuing more of its RLUSD stablecoin along the way, and it also announced a few new banking partnerships in the process.

The breakout caught short sellers off guard as the XRP price broke through resistance, and the rush to cover those positions added even more fuel to the XRP rally over the last couple of trading days. Right now, the near term XRP forecast among traders leans bullish, with the bears mostly on the back foot, and a lot of people are talking about an XRP breakout soon if the current pace holds.

Risks Remain As XRP Nears Resistance

Not every signal here points higher, though, and that’s worth saying plainly. Weekly inflows into spot XRP ETFs have slowed down a lot, dropping by roughly 93% from their recent peak, and total assets under management in those funds slipped below $1 billion. The XRP price is also creeping up toward a dense band of resistance between $1.20 and $1.35, an area where stacked moving averages have capped past rallies before. RSI readings above 80 suggest XRP is overbought on the shorter term charts, and any XRP price prediction tied to this move still needs the $1.00 to $1.05 support zone to hold. The CLARITY Act, which would set clearer federal rules for crypto, still hasn’t moved in the Senate, and that just adds one more layer of uncertainty to an already messy picture.

At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $1.31, still well below the highs from the 2021 and 2025 cycles, at $1.96 and $3.65. A close above that $1.35 resistance zone would strengthen the bull case quite a bit, while a drop back under $1.05 would put the whole thing in doubt. Whether this turns into a real XRP breakout that leads to a sustained XRP rally, or just stalls out at resistance, will probably decide the next stage of the XRP price prediction cycle. Some traders already expect an XRP breakout soon above that $1.35 zone if momentum keeps building, and the broader XRP forecast for the rest of 2026 really does hinge on how the next few weeks play out.