Arthur Hayes Loads Up on Crypto Ahead of Debut

Hayes Builds Crypto Positions Ahead of Anthropic Debut

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of cryptocurrency derivatives exchange Bitmex and chief investment officer at crypto investment firm Maelstrom, said on X on Nov. 11 that he was adding crypto risk before Anthropic’s anticipated listing the following week.

Discussing his crypto positioning ahead of the IPO, the oft-outspoken Hayes stated:

“The Anthropic IPO is going to rip. I’m loading up on crypto risk between now and next week’s listing date.”

“Keeping size small-to-medium in case I need to quickly close the positions. But I’m mini-bulled up,” he added.

Proposed Offering Includes $26 Billion Partner Investment

Anthropic, the artificial intelligence company behind Claude, an AI assistant, launched its initial public offering (IPO) roadshow Nov. 10. Its proposed share offering comprised 825 million Class A shares at an expected price of $70 to $78 each. The company had applied to list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol ANT.

At that range, proposed IPO proceeds would total $57.75 billion to $64.35 billion before underwriting discounts, the fees paid to banks arranging the sale, and other expenses. Anthropic would offer approximately 801.35 million shares, with existing stockholders selling the remainder. The company would receive no proceeds from those stockholders’ sales.

A separate conditional $26 billion private placement involved Google, Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, Broadcom, Micron Technology, Microsoft, and TSMC Partners. Those investors agreed to purchase nonvoting Class N shares at the IPO price, with the transaction scheduled to close immediately after the public offering, subject to conditions. In its Nov. 10 announcement, Anthropic said its registration statement had not yet become effective.

AI Spending Risks Accompany Short-Term Optimism

On Nov. 2, Hayes had offered a more cautious bitcoin outlook tied to bank and Fed balance sheets, expecting weakness until the Federal Reserve or commercial banks began expanding their balance sheets. That assessment focused on monetary conditions as a potential driver of demand. His latest trade instead centered on the approaching AI listing.

Monetary expansion remained central to his broader thesis, with global liquidity and money supply providing the backdrop to his longer-term outlook. Commercial bank lending and central bank asset purchases represent different routes through which funding conditions can change. The earlier assessment put both banks and the Fed within his framework for a bitcoin recovery.

In an interview published Oct. 2, he outlined an AI bailout forecast involving trillions of dollars, arguing that financial stress among AI companies and data-center borrowers could prompt government intervention. He expected money creation associated with that rescue to benefit crypto and placed a potential reckoning roughly 12 to 18 months away. That forecast addressed a longer horizon than the listing trade.

Financial disclosures supplied a concrete measure of Anthropic’s growth and spending exposure. Revenue reached $33.2 billion in the first nine months of the year, while its operating loss narrowed to $1.3 billion from $5.2 billion a year earlier. Purchase and lease commitments totaled approximately $900.9 billion, largely for computing and infrastructure, including $70.7 billion due within 12 months after Sept. 30.

Anthropic’s proposed initial public offering could expose savers to substantial financial risks through their investment funds, Devere Group CEO Nigel…