Bitcoin $100K Break: Consolidation or Crash?

Bitcoin’s dramatic slip beneath the psychologically significant $100,000 threshold recently jolted the crypto market, setting off a wave of intense debate among leading analysts.

While some firms warn of a severe structural failure and a deep correction, others quickly dismiss the plunge as a necessary, mechanical “leverage reset.” The split consensus leaves investors navigating a tense period where macro pressures clash directly with underlying long-term conviction.

Conflicting Outlooks: From $72,000 Crash to a Healthy Reset

Bitcoin’s immediate future now hangs between two starkly opposing forecasts. The on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant represents the bearish extreme, recently issuing the most alarming market warning.

Specifically, Head of Research Julio Moreno argued Bitcoin could crash to roughly $72,000 in less than two months, citing the asset’s failure to reclaim the crucial $100,000 support. CryptoQuant also based its grim outlook on evidence of rapidly collapsing spot demand. Several indicators have shown significant market contraction following the massive October 10 liquidation, alongside sustained negative flows in Bitcoin ETFs and a persistent negative Coinbase price premium. 

Learn more: $19 Billion Liquidated After Trump’s Tariff Bomb

Source: CryptoQuant

However, other industry voices immediately countered this structural doom narrative. According to TheBlock, Nic Puckrin, co-founder of The Coin Bureau, firmly rejected the idea that the bull market was over. Puckrin acknowledged the psychological weight of the break but stressed the drop represented only a 20% correction from the all-time high, a routine event in crypto.

Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, echoed this view, declaring the selloff “not terminal.” He insisted that leverage, not long-term belief, exited the market, arguing the system now stands healthier and less vulnerable to cascading risk events.

Drivers of the Selloff

Leverage & Liquidations

A confluence of factors drove the sharp reversal and validated the analysts who saw a leverage flush. The price action triggered a massive deleveraging event. According to Coinglass data, over $1.7 billion in estimated positions were liquidated across major exchanges, with long positions accounting for over $1.3 billion of the total. However, this mechanical cleansing primarily removed speculative risk from the system.

Macro Pressure

This technical selling found amplification through external, macroeconomic forces. Global risk-off sentiment swept through markets, compelling investors to move capital out of high-risk assets like crypto and into cash and safer instruments, such as Treasuries. This movement coincided precisely with major redemptions from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which immediately deepened the market slide. Its severe result, forced selling, triggered directly by these broad shifts, therefore mandates a forthcoming period of price stability.

Therefore, the market must now wait for organic, non-leveraged demand, which currently lags, to step in and absorb the liquidity void left by the recent massive liquidations, effectively resetting the trading environment. Analysts agree that absent a renewed push of institutional capital, specifically renewed ETF inflows, the market must rebuild conviction before another major move.

Learn more: Solana ETFs Net Inflows Surpassed Bitcoin and Ethereum

Short-Term Path Forward

Near-term price action, therefore, points toward consolidation. Analysts have mapped key support and resistance levels. Puckrin pointed out that holding the 50-week EMA near $101,000 remains crucial for maintaining the bullish structure. While the immediate outlook calls for patience, long-term proponents, including Puckrin, maintain that the broader bullish thesis remains intact, potentially culminating in a cycle top near $150,000.

The bulls are fighting back.

Although Bitcoin broke through the 50w EMA and even dipped below $100k, we managed to close back above this support.

It’s still going to be a battle to see where we close the week – but let’s get through today… https://t.co/vybIZLIQz6 pic.twitter.com/c4EG0mz3xL

— Nic (@nicrypto) November 5, 2025

Bitcoin must hold above the 50-week EMA to remain bullish – Source: Nic Puckrin on X.

The coming weeks will determine whether the technical leverage reset provides a stable foundation for the next upward leg or if mounting macro pressure validates the more severe $72,000 correction scenario.